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  • Writer's pictureAndre Pappas


Reverse back to November 2021 when Bitcoin was at all-time highs. If you had any social exposure to crypto you remember tons of people saying "I wish I bought bitcoin" or something along those lines. A lot of people did buy cryptos at this time and have taken major losses over the last year. This is more-so due to social pressure than it is due to bad investing strategy.

Present: Bitcoin is down 70% form its all time high. Right between halving's and "crypto is dead" is the new "I wish I bought Bitcoin." It's funny because if you just flipped those 2 statements on the time frame you would probably have a very successful portfolio.

Fortunately there is a big second chance. Problem is, most people are now mistaking "crypto is dead" for "the crypto markets are 70%+ discounted."

The second chance will most likely be the 2024 bitcoin halving (possibly a little earlier) as the crypto markets have moved in accordance with bitcoin and its coded supply shocks. Over time bitcoin dominance will probably continue to decrease but for now, and years to come, I presume it will still be a major deterrent.

As everything begins to have upward pressure again all the attention will be on bitcoin and Ethereum. This is good because this is probably majority of everybody portfolio. Depending on how volatile your portfolio is you may have Alt coins as well. You have to remember coins take their turns pumping. Generally BTC and ETH will move together or at least close; sometime BTC leads a little and vice versa. Then while they top out and stabilize the large caps will take their turn followed by the alt coins and micro caps. You'll see a lot of people (influenced by crypto youtubers and other "experts") try to play the game of catching these individual pumps among coin capitalization sizes. I would advise against this. It will decrease your odds tremendously as well as require full time attention.

This "path to Altseason" chart is a popular explanation of the money flow from Bitcoin to micro caps.

So let's look at the upside of some of the alt coins from their pre 2020 halving to their all time high, as well as the correction back down to where we are currently. Hopefully you will see that if crypto is here to stay then prices are nearing their lows of this cycle. Also you can see that with any long term strategy in large cap, alt coin, or micro cap investing there is plenty of gains to be made without doing any sort of short term plays. Remember, all of this is a big IF. These small cap coins are volatile and come with high risk, but do offer high reward as well.

ALGO (Algorand)

DOT (Polkadot)

VET (VeChain)

Looking at these charts there are a few similarities. The corrections are all much more than BTC. This is expected as we know the smaller cap coins are going to be much more volatile. I expect these coins could drop as much as 95%+ if BTC continues its current downward trend falling below 18k. The more important lesson here is: you are never going to be able to call the top or bottom so starting to DCA (dollar cost average) in these areas is smart; you'll get a lower average share price over time.

The other important similarity of the chart is the recent price action. Since a bit before June 2022, a lot of the coins have started to settle, finding their bottom. Again they are mimicking bitcoin as it has stayed in a range for the past few months. Previous cycles have looked just like this in good buy zones. You can see this at the end of each chart; the last 90 days have been much less volatile and created the flat price action that has not been seen since late 2020. This is significant for anybody starting out (especially if you have limited funds) imagine having the opportunity to allocate small percentages of your earnings over the next year or two. If you did this consistently you will have bought the bottom and been perfectly positioned for any run up.

Remember non of this is investment advice. All speculation based on previous events. Always do your own research. Thanks for reading

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